☀️ temporal discounting, evolutionary beliefs and resulting
thinking in bets by annie duke
read time 2 minutes and 11 seconds
Welcome to Happyness Hypothesis, a weekly newsletter where I provide actionable ideas to help you build a healthy, wealthy, and happy life.
Today, we'll look at my key takeaways from the book “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke:
#1 Temporal discounting
We are built for temporal discounting or instant gratification.
For example, lottery winners will routinely pick the lump sum (instant gratification) option even if it means losing out on 40% of their winnings.
Next time you are faced with a decision, try the 10/10/10 rule.
Take a pause and ask yourself: What are the consequences in ten minutes, ten months, and ten years? Then make the decision.
#2 Intellectual Humility:
Embrace the magic words: "I don't know." Followed by “Let me find out”.
They're not a sign of weakness but a window into enlightenment.
#3 Luck vs. Skill:
Your life is a byproduct of the quality of your decisions, and luck.
There are two important concepts to keep in mind when thinking about the quality of your decisions.
The first is resulting which is a concept from poker.
It's when you judge a decision based on the outcome. Don’t judge a decision simply by the outcome but by the process used to make the decision.
The second concept is hindsight bias. This is when the outcome seems inevitable once it’s known.
#4 Unpacking Evolutionary Beliefs:
Our ancestors formed beliefs based on efficiency not accuracy.
They could only form new beliefs by what they experienced. Oftentimes their lives were at stake. They had no reason to believe their senses were lying.
They heard something. Believed it to be true. Later, if they experienced something to the contrary, they changed their belief.
We still operate under this evolutionary system.
Instead, we should do the following:
We hear something. We vet it. And then we form a belief.
That's all folks. Thanks for reading. I appreciate it. If you're bored of these, you can unsubscribe here.
Until next Tuesday ✌️!